Delegates got two hard gold price number to remember this morning during the opening salvo of newsletter writer talks on the first day of the Prospectors and Development Association of Canada (PDAC) conference now in progress in Toronto. Indeed, you can even put one on the calendar.
Ian McAvity, author of Deliberations on World Markets, got about as specific as it gets in the gold price prediction game.
“And I’ll tell you right now. It’s a very simple forecast. If we can break through $1,800, we’ll see $2,642 in the week of September 20th, 2013. Everyone ok with that one?”
He added, “You’re never supposed to put price and date in the same paragraph, on the same page, let alone the same sentence.“
That figure, partly given in jest, was his conclusion based on his extrapolation from where we are now and where we would go from here given past gold cycles, which he contends (it may not surprise some) is far from over.
The other prediction was about where gold would never go.
John Kaiser, of Kaiser Research, closed off the morning round of newsletter presentations. In general he argued gold would continue in the $1,500 to $1,600 an ounce range in coming years. Then, getting absolute, he said, “I’m of the view that these sorts of levels are the new reality for gold and that the danger $1,000 gold is absolutely zero.”
In part, this bottom is set by the level of demand for gold – strong – and meantime the massive rise in gold mining costs during the past five years that have eroded so many a miner’s margin.
There you have it. Two well defined gold prices by which to measure the predictive mettle of two well known gold commentators.