MINING FINANCE / INVESTMENT
LBMA forecasts: gold up, silver, platinum up more, palladium most of all
An LBMA panel of invited experts is predicting a 5% increase in the average gold price for 2013, but slightly more for silver and platinum while palladium is seen as the precious metals biggest gainer.
Posted: Monday , 14 Jan 2013
LONDON (Mineweb) -
The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) hosts an annual price prediction competition, with the winners selected on their predictions of the average gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices for the year ahead. Competition entrants are by invitation only and are all considered experts in the precious metals field drawn mostly from the banking sector, so in general forecasts tend to err on the side of caution, although 2012 was something of an exception in this, at least as far as gold and silver were concerned.
If one looks back, at the beginning of 2012 virtually everybody was predicting a strong year for gold and the other precious metals ahead, but since then the euphoria has waned somewhat and although the participants in the 2013 competition still are, on average, predicting further increases across the board, these are coming up as far more conservative than they were a year ago. Indeed the average predictions are well below those of the 2012 entrants.
This year a total of 23 invited ‘experts, have thus taken the plunge of putting their predictions on record and have given the LBMA their estimates for the high, low and average price for 2013 for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, based on the London fixings. All have also provided brief commentaries on the major influences and activity for each metal covered, but these have not yet been released by the LBMA, but will be in a full publication on the forecasts later in the month.
The average predictions from the LBMA panel of experts for the year for the four precious metals are as follows:
Gold – Average 2012 price - $1669. Average forecast for 2013 - $1753. (Up 5.1%)
Silver – Average 2012 price - $31.15. Average forecast for 2013 - $33.21. (Up 6.6%)
Platinum – Average 2012 price - $1552. Average forecast for 2013 - $1682. (Up 8.4%)
Palladiium – Average 2012 price $644.33. Average forecast for 2013 - $744.03. (Up 15.5%)
Palladium, which is seen as in a supply deficit position is thus favoured by the panel, while increases predicted for the other precious metals over the year are seen as being relatively low as there is a belief – not shared by everyone – that the global economy has at last turned the corner and investors are again looking less risk averse and are switching from gold and silver as safe havens, to the general equity markets. Platinum and palladium (and to a lesser extent perhaps silver) are seen largely as industrial metals and are seen as thus likely to benefit most from any upturn in the global economy, hence the forecasts for better rises in these than for gold.
While huge majority of Mineweb readers are not part of the LBMA’s invited panel (although almost certainly most, if not all, of the LBMA panel are Mineweb readers), you do all have the opportunity to see how your forecasts come out in comparison with those of the experts, at least as far as gold is concerned by entering our own Gold Price Prediction Competition, which closes at the end of the month.
To date Mineweb readers are predicting the following gold prices for the year: High - $2007, Low - $1593, Year end - $1893, Average: $1804 – so overall our readers are looking for an average price for the year of around $50 more than the LBMA experts panel. We’ll see how these pan out at the end of the year.
For your entries, you may cut and paste the form below as a guide (Note - the full tabulation will be published after the competition closing date, but not the email addresses supplied):
As in the past we will be using LBMA gold fixing prices as our yardsticks rather than spot prices which sometimes may be disputed
MINEWEB 2013 GOLD PRICE COMPETITION
ADDRESS ENTRIES TO firstname.lastname@example.org with GOLD PRICE COMPETITION in title line
Entrant name or nickname:
Gold Price High: ..
Gold Price Low:...
Year End Gold price: ..
2013 Average Gold Price: ..
Email address: ..
Entrants are welcome to alter their forecasts right up until the closing date of January 31st.should events over this period cause them to change their views.
NOTE: WHOLE NUMBERS ONLY PLEASE. DECIMAL ESTIMATES WILL BE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST WHOLE NUMBER (.50 WILL BE ROUNDED UPWARDS)
WINNERS WILL BE BASED ON OFFICIAL LBMA MORNING AND AFTERNOON FIXINGS AND AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR, NOT ON ‘SPOT' PRICES.
ANY SUBMITTED COMMENTS MAY BE USED IN A SUBSEQUENT MINEWEB ARTICLE (WITH ATTRIBUTION) SHOULD WE CONSIDER THEM PARTICULARLY PERTINENT.