GOLD ANALYSIS

2012 Mineweb gold price competition kicks off

The 2012 edition of Mineweb's gold price prediction competition is here; in 2011, Mineweb readers' average predictions have been comfortably more accurate than those of ‘experts' in a similar LBMA exercise.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Friday , 23 Dec 2011

LONDON - 

Readers are invited again to submit their gold price forecasts for 2012.  As usual we will be asking readers to predict the year's high, low, year-end and average gold prices for 2012 as shown in LBMA published fixings rather than the intraday metals price.  The reward will be recognition as Mineweb's gold guru of the year.

While 2011 is not over yet, the averages of the 2011 entries will definitely have undershot the high achieved at the end of the Summer, but look likely to have overshot the likely year end figure, unless there is a big move between now and the year end.  Readers probably undeshot the year's low, but not by a big margin, while they also have undershot the average for the year to date.

To recall, the Mineweb reader overall averages were:  High-$1779, Low - $1263, Year-end - $1674 and Average for the year - $1515.  So far this year the highest LBMA gold fixing was $1896.50 on September 5, the low $1319 on January 28^th while the current price is in the low $1600s.  The average gold price to date is $1572.  We usually also relate the Mineweb averages to the predictions of the experts in the LBMA's own competition where the predicted average high was $1662, the low $1238 and the average $1457- The LBMA competition does not have a year-end category.  As you will see whatever the gold price does now, unless there is a multi hundred dollar fall between now and the final fixing this year on December 30, which we feel distinctly unlikely, Mineweb readers were again more accurate in their predictions than the ‘experts' in every category - indeed quite significantly so.

For your entries, you may cut and paste the form below (Note - the full tabulation will be published after the competition closing date, but not the email addresses supplied): 

NOTE: WHOLE NUMBERS ONLY PLEASE.  DECIMAL ESTIMATES WILL BE ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST WHOLE NUMBER (.50 WILL BE ROUNDED UPWARDS)

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MINEWEB 2012 GOLD PRICE COMPETITION 

Entrant name or nickname: 

Gold Price High: .. 

Gold Price Low:... 

Year End Gold price: .. 

2012 Average Gold Price: .. 

Email address: ..

Comments: ...

Entrants are welcome to alter their forecasts right up until the closing date of January 20^th. should events over this period cause them to change their views.

PLEASE SEND ENTRIES TO EDITOR@MINEWEB.COM

iPad Version - An employee of a bullion house shows gold bars in Mumbai: Arko Datta / Reuters