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GOLD ANALYSIS
GOLD ANALYSIS
DOLLAR INDEX SLIPS
Gold and silver stocks in the limelight
Precious metals gold and silver bullion move to multi month highs, as dollar slips to multi month lows.
Author: Barry SergeantPosted: Wednesday , 17 Dec 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
Listed gold stocks reaffirmed their status as the leading equities recovery sector in global stock markets after the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, announced an interest rates cut on Tuesday, establishing a target range for the federal funds rate of 0% to 0.25%, the lowest ever known.
The cuts in US interest rates are among the latest further steps taken by governments, and monetary and treasury officials, around the world, to further stem damage from haemorrhaged credit markets and also stimulate economic activity as recessionary conditions increasingly take a grip across the world economy. A weaker dollar invariably stimulates dollar commodity prices, often expressed as a so-called "inverse correlation" relationship.
The dollar index (the weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value against a basket comprising the euro, yen, pound sterling, Canadian dollar, Swedish krone and Swiss franc) moved to 78.7 points on Wednesday, its lowest level since 29 September. The trade weighted dollar index, which includes a bigger collection of currencies than the US dollar index, has similarly moved to multi month lows.
While commodity prices in general have been savaged, with crude oil prices now down by around 60% from record highs close to USD 150 a barrel on 15 July, among the major commodities followed by investors, gold bullion has fallen the least in percentage terms. On Wednesday the metal was changing hands at around USD 880 an ounce, some 15% below record highs of just over USD 1,000 an ounce seen in March this year, and the highest since 8 October. Dollar silver bullion prices have also recovered well in the past few months, but remain 46% below highs recorded in March this year,
Measured over the past 12 months, the majority of commodities continue to trade close to low points. In contrast with gold and silver, platinum group metal (PGM) prices remain in the doldrums, with palladium trading around 70% below highs, and platinum 62% down. Price action for PGMs is closely linked to developments in the auto industry, which uses PGMs in exhaust catalysts.
Base metal prices, which also depend heavily on changes in industrial activity, remain squarely in bombed out territory. The base metals are currently changing hands at prices not seen for years, and, in the case of nickel, for more than five years. Announcements by mining companies of varying degrees of cut backs, curtailments, capital expenditure freezes, stoppages, and so on are now part of the daily routine, but the flow through into positively impacting global supply-demand dynamics is yet to materialize.
In the meantime, investors continue to show keen appetites for mining stocks; first, as a leading recovery sector, and second, for the choicest names within those sectors. Where the MSCI Barra dollar index for global equities has now lifted 21% off its low points, the world's 100 most valuable mining stocks have so far recorded a 62% lift, or bounce from the bottom, seen three months ago.
|
INDICES |
|
From |
From |
|
|
Points |
high* |
low* |
|
MSCI world USD |
917.07 |
-42.8% |
20.8% |
|
MSCI emerging markets USD |
571.85 |
-54.4% |
28.2% |
|
S+P 500 |
896.80 |
-40.2% |
21.0% |
|
DJ Stoxx 600 |
197.47 |
-46.2% |
9.9% |
|
KBW banks |
44.50 |
-53.9% |
35.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
STOCK |
Value |
From |
From |
|
GROUPS |
USD bn |
high* |
low* |
|
Dow Jones Industrial |
2966.34 |
-36.0% |
30.4% |
|
Top 100 miners |
815.76 |
-67.0% |
62.1% |
|
Oil stocks |
2164.83 |
-45.6% |
43.9% |
|
S + P 500 Energy |
1092.06 |
-43.9% |
39.8% |
|
Gold Tier I stocks |
168.63 |
-46.9% |
87.5% |
|
Gold Tier II stocks |
33.13 |
-56.6% |
121.1% |
|
Gold stocks overall |
196.14 |
-53.2% |
102.0% |
|
World banks (80) |
1925.74 |
-60.0% |
28.7% |
|
Uranium stocks |
14.09 |
-64.4% |
65.5% |
|
* 12-month |
|
|
|
Measured on a weighted market capitalisation basis, a total of 202 listed gold stocks around the world have now lifted by nearly 102% from trough prices. The powerful drive to higher price levels has been led, in particular, by Tier II names such as Eldorado, Centerra, JSC Polymetal, Red Back, Iamgold, but the overall gold group continues to be dominated as to tone by Tier I price leaders such as Kinross, Goldcorp, Buenaventura (which has staged a dramatic recent rally), Gold Fields, and Harmony.
When measured on a 12-month basis, the price performance of listed silver stocks has moved the subsector into the second-ranking in global mining after gold, suddenly overhauling listed uranium stocks. While the overall performance of silver names lag gold peers by a long way, the listed silver sector has been led to fresh multi month highs by the likes of producers Silver Standard, Silver Wheaton (where the stock price has more than doubled in the past month), Silverstone, and Silvercorp.
|
Global tier I gold stocks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
USD 32.35 |
-38.6% |
133.7% |
23.578 |
|
|
USD 29.50 |
-63.1% |
110.7% |
5.624 |
|
|
USD 10.42 |
-28.4% |
90.5% |
4.293 |
|
|
AUD 2.67 |
-39.2% |
75.7% |
4.106 |
|
|
USD 27.28 |
-44.5% |
104.0% |
9.568 |
|
|
CNY 4.82 |
-78.1% |
28.2% |
7.262 |
|
|
USD 35.87 |
-34.5% |
107.7% |
31.289 |
|
|
AUD 29.55 |
-27.0% |
78.5% |
9.405 |
|
|
USD 9.74 |
-46.1% |
109.9% |
6.363 |
|
|
USD 18.41 |
-32.8% |
168.8% |
12.132 |
|
|
USD 40.71 |
-29.3% |
92.3% |
17.971 |
|
|
USD 20.85 |
-51.4% |
131.7% |
5.732 |
|
|
USD 25.77 |
-79.7% |
64.1% |
9.732 |
|
|
USD 85.86 |
-14.5% |
30.1% |
21.577 |
|
|
Tier I averages/total |
|
-43.4% |
94.7% |
168.631 |
|
Weighted averages |
|
-46.9% |
87.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIER II |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
CNY 36.60 |
-75.1% |
60.5% |
1.881 |
|
|
USD 5.87 |
-41.7% |
164.4% |
1.735 |
|
|
ZAR 1.79 |
-71.7% |
21.8% |
0.193 |
|
|
USD 7.18 |
-64.0% |
116.9% |
5.024 |
|
|
CAD 0.11 |
-96.9% |
175.0% |
0.054 |
|
|
USD 7.98 |
-14.6% |
235.3% |
2.922 |
|
|
USD 46.83 |
-43.9% |
124.4% |
6.774 |
|
|
CAD 4.70 |
-70.8% |
422.2% |
0.845 |
|
|
USD 45.77 |
-18.7% |
105.4% |
3.501 |
|
|
CNY 49.45 |
-58.6% |
87.3% |
2.516 |
|
|
GBP 3.39 |
-78.0% |
117.3% |
0.428 |
|
|
USD 2.00 |
-84.8% |
102.0% |
0.339 |
|
|
USD 1.31 |
-69.7% |
227.5% |
0.257 |
|
|
CAD 19.07 |
-23.6% |
64.1% |
1.589 |
|
|
GBP 1.84 |
-68.0% |
98.0% |
2.053 |
|
|
USD 3.79 |
-61.5% |
279.0% |
1.194 |
|
|
CAD 7.64 |
-17.4% |
167.1% |
1.306 |
|
|
CAD 1.75 |
-82.1% |
86.2% |
0.309 |
|
|
CAD 0.98 |
-71.9% |
44.1% |
0.208 |
|
|
Tier II averages/total |
|
-58.6% |
142.0% |
33.128 |
|
Weighted averages |
|
-56.6% |
121.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIER III |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
CAD 1.78 |
-56.9% |
256.0% |
0.202 |
|
|
CAD 1.63 |
-57.4% |
79.1% |
0.291 |
|
|
AUD 4.58 |
-39.8% |
93.2% |
0.939 |
|
|
CAD 8.18 |
-2.6% |
133.7% |
0.651 |
|
|
GBP 0.38 |
-84.9% |
81.0% |
0.192 |
|
|
AUD 0.10 |
-92.4% |
3.3% |
0.096 |
|
|
AUD 3.01 |
-52.2% |
36.8% |
0.197 |
|
|
CAD 2.40 |
-63.9% |
105.1% |
0.191 |
|
|
AUD 0.28 |
-71.1% |
48.6% |
0.079 |
|
|
CAD 1.85 |
-83.5% |
81.4% |
0.201 |
|
|
CAD 2.55 |
-79.4% |
436.8% |
0.228 |
|
|
CAD 0.27 |
-85.4% |
68.8% |
0.252 |
|
|
GBP 0.06 |
-87.6% |
16.1% |
0.036 |
|
|
GBP 0.02 |
-73.4% |
13.3% |
0.036 |
|
|
AUD 0.28 |
-39.8% |
86.7% |
0.145 |
|
|
CAD 4.05 |
-72.0% |
69.5% |
0.215 |
|
|
ZAR 1.50 |
-88.9% |
114.3% |
0.014 |
|
|
AUD 0.21 |
-93.4% |
40.0% |
0.024 |
|
|
ZAR 5.90 |
-42.4% |
106.3% |
0.226 |
|
|
GBP 0.01 |
-96.8% |
28.6% |
0.003 |
|
|
AUD 1.64 |
-43.8% |
86.9% |
0.303 |
|
|
AUD 0.17 |
-76.1% |
78.9% |
0.046 |
|
|
USD 45.50 |
-0.8% |
100.0% |
1.544 |
|
|
CNY 8.58 |
-80.3% |
44.2% |
0.672 |
|
|
CAD 3.99 |
-26.5% |
229.8% |
0.491 |
|
|
USD 3.00 |
-89.9% |
36.4% |
0.132 |
|
|
CAD 5.05 |
-54.9% |
88.4% |
0.503 |
|
|
CAD 0.10 |
-95.0% |
100.0% |
0.043 |
|
|
HKD 2.01 |
-68.8% |
151.3% |
0.077 |
|
|
HKD 5.70 |
-73.5% |
206.5% |
0.322 |
|
|
CAD 0.28 |
-85.5% |
19.1% |
0.092 |
|
|
CAD 5.54 |
-60.6% |
66.4% |
0.272 |
|
|
CAD 0.95 |
-82.0% |
82.7% |
0.063 |
|
|
CAD 0.16 |
-94.5% |
60.0% |
0.039 |
|
|
Tier III averages/total |
|
-67.5% |
95.6% |
8.816 |
|
Weighted averages |
|
-67.4% |
92.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DEVELOPERS |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
Anatolia |
CAD 1.42 |
-75.7% |
118.5% |
0.098 |
|
CAD 0.64 |
-71.4% |
50.6% |
0.181 |
|
|
Norton Gold |
AUD 0.09 |
-86.7% |
38.5% |
0.027 |
|
CAD 2.39 |
-66.8% |
117.3% |
0.356 |
|
|
CAD 1.55 |
-87.4% |
93.8% |
0.068 |
|
|
CAD 1.20 |
-84.0% |
126.4% |
0.046 |
|
|
Medusa |
AUD 0.66 |
-54.8% |
61.0% |
0.068 |
|
Osisko |
CAD 3.26 |
-50.3% |
132.9% |
0.448 |
|
Central Rand |
ZAR 6.00 |
-66.7% |
100.0% |
0.150 |
|
Westgold |
AUD 0.16 |
-69.9% |
3.3% |
0.016 |
|
CAD 1.35 |
-56.7% |
36.4% |
0.286 |
|
|
DKK 179.50 |
-69.1% |
11.8% |
0.037 |
|
|
CAD 1.45 |
-76.2% |
119.7% |
0.106 |
|
|
CAD 7.81 |
-69.3% |
173.1% |
0.291 |
|
|
Centamin Egypt |
CAD 0.88 |
-45.0% |
104.7% |
0.643 |
|
CAD 14.66 |
-55.7% |
95.5% |
0.455 |
|
|
Gold Reserve |
CAD 0.74 |
-87.7% |
155.2% |
0.035 |
|
Goldplat |
CAD 0.11 |
-36.8% |
32.3% |
0.019 |
|
Bear Lake Gold |
CAD 0.23 |
-84.5% |
15.0% |
0.016 |
|
St Barbara |
AUD 0.31 |
-66.9% |
69.4% |
0.279 |
|
Jinshan |
CAD 0.66 |
-78.9% |
69.2% |
0.090 |
|
Metals Exploration |
GBP 0.07 |
-77.9% |
8.0% |
0.012 |
|
Mengold Resources |
CAD 0.03 |
-90.3% |
0.0% |
0.001 |
|
Archipelago |
GBP 0.04 |
-90.1% |
75.0% |
0.011 |
|
China Goldmines |
GBP 0.23 |
-81.9% |
7.1% |
0.017 |
|
GBP 0.30 |
-73.1% |
195.1% |
0.046 |
|
|
Apex Minerals |
AUD 0.39 |
-72.2% |
95.0% |
0.107 |
|
CAD 1.33 |
-22.7% |
82.2% |
0.236 |
|
|
B2GOLD |
CAD 0.45 |
-82.1% |
50.0% |
0.061 |
|
Beadell |
AUD 0.06 |
-87.9% |
17.6% |
0.004 |
|
CAD 0.70 |
-64.6% |
32.1% |
0.036 |
|
|
Aflease Gold |
ZAR 1.10 |
-63.9% |
34.1% |
0.062 |
|
Wits Gold |
CAD 6.00 |
-72.1% |
100.0% |
0.139 |
|
Uruguay Minerals |
CAD 0.25 |
-93.2% |
8.7% |
0.010 |
|
GBP 0.59 |
-23.0% |
91.8% |
0.056 |
|
|
AUD 0.65 |
-52.2% |
132.1% |
0.221 |
|
|
CAD 5.33 |
-22.8% |
158.7% |
0.254 |
|
|
CAD 0.55 |
-61.8% |
57.1% |
0.008 |
|
|
Buffalo Gold |
CAD 0.02 |
-97.3% |
200.0% |
0.001 |
|
Cassidy Gold |
CAD 0.06 |
-87.6% |
57.1% |
0.004 |
|
Colombia Goldfields |
CAD 0.03 |
-97.9% |
150.0% |
0.002 |
|
Coral Gold |
CAD 0.14 |
-90.6% |
40.0% |
0.003 |
|
Entrée Gold |
CAD 1.19 |
-56.4% |
138.0% |
0.093 |
|
Exeter Resources |
CAD 2.00 |
-64.1% |
90.5% |
0.083 |
|
Gitennes |
CAD 0.04 |
-89.6% |
40.0% |
0.001 |
|
Golden Goose |
CAD 0.15 |
-84.2% |
114.3% |
0.006 |
|
Grandview Gold |
CAD 0.05 |
-92.2% |
42.9% |
0.002 |
|
Kirkland Lake |
CAD 4.85 |
-62.7% |
92.5% |
0.224 |
|
Aldridge |
CAD 2.17 |
-41.7% |
20.6% |
0.041 |
|
Molycor Gold |
CAD 0.03 |
-90.0% |
66.7% |
0.001 |
|
CAD 0.07 |
-76.8% |
160.0% |
0.005 |
|
|
Nautilus Minerals |
CAD 1.00 |
-75.9% |
37.0% |
0.129 |
|
Navasota Resources |
CAD 0.17 |
-80.2% |
6.3% |
0.008 |
|
CAD 0.24 |
-80.8% |
118.2% |
0.005 |
|
|
CAD 0.04 |
-94.6% |
75.0% |
0.002 |
|
|
Rainy River |
CAD 1.12 |
-81.2% |
80.6% |
0.054 |
|
Reunion Gold |
CAD 0.03 |
-97.9% |
20.0% |
0.001 |
|
Searchgold Resources |
CAD 0.02 |
-92.9% |
0.0% |
0.002 |
|
Skyline Gold |
CAD 0.04 |
-77.8% |
60.0% |
0.002 |
|
Staccato Gold |
CAD 0.06 |
-76.9% |
33.3% |
0.005 |
|
Sunridge Gold |
CAD 0.10 |
-94.6% |
66.7% |
0.005 |
|
CAD 0.07 |
-84.8% |
100.0% |
0.006 |
|
|
Yukon-Nevada |
CAD 0.04 |
-98.1% |
75.0% |
0.005 |
|
Tanami Gold |
AUD 0.02 |
-72.8% |
340.0% |
0.055 |
|
Tasman Goldfields |
AUD 0.06 |
-80.0% |
12.0% |
0.002 |
|
Focus Minerals |
AUD 0.02 |
-77.1% |
41.2% |
0.021 |
|
AUD 0.92 |
-48.9% |
31.4% |
0.043 |
|
|
AUD 0.08 |
-88.6% |
60.0% |
0.012 |
|
|
Regis Resources |
AUD 0.09 |
-88.6% |
42.9% |
0.015 |
|
Goldstar Resources |
AUD 0.03 |
-92.0% |
10.3% |
0.003 |
|
Gryphon Minerals |
AUD 0.06 |
-91.5% |
3.3% |
0.005 |
|
Barra Resources |
AUD 0.04 |
-91.2% |
0.0% |
0.008 |
|
Conquest Mining |
AUD 0.18 |
-74.1% |
20.0% |
0.034 |
|
Hill End Gold |
AUD 0.11 |
-78.8% |
22.2% |
0.024 |
|
Dioro Exploration |
AUD 0.39 |
-79.5% |
47.2% |
0.019 |
|
Shield Mining |
AUD 0.04 |
-88.2% |
0.0% |
0.001 |
|
Dragon Mining |
AUD 0.02 |
-86.0% |
50.0% |
0.011 |
|
Zedex Minerals |
AUD 0.03 |
-88.5% |
50.0% |
0.006 |
|
Red 5 |
AUD 0.04 |
-72.9% |
58.3% |
0.018 |
|
AUD 0.19 |
-76.1% |
90.0% |
0.021 |
|
|
AUD 0.66 |
-54.8% |
61.0% |
0.068 |
|
|
Hampton Hill |
AUD 0.10 |
-82.8% |
0.0% |
0.009 |
|
Navigator Resources |
AUD 0.18 |
-81.8% |
63.6% |
0.017 |
|
Keegan Resources |
CAD 0.83 |
-85.8% |
69.4% |
0.020 |
|
CAD 0.50 |
-88.0% |
2.0% |
0.027 |
|
|
Bear Creek Mining |
CAD 1.25 |
-86.7% |
119.3% |
0.058 |
|
AUD 0.19 |
-44.1% |
137.5% |
0.022 |
|
|
AUD 0.06 |
-74.9% |
0.0% |
0.008 |
|
|
CAD 1.28 |
-38.8% |
113.3% |
0.186 |
|
|
Linear Gold |
CAD 0.70 |
-77.4% |
7.7% |
0.016 |
|
Metallic Venture |
CAD 0.30 |
-88.8% |
39.5% |
0.013 |
|
Mundoro |
CAD 0.22 |
-77.8% |
46.7% |
0.007 |
|
Stratagold |
CAD 0.02 |
-95.5% |
50.0% |
0.002 |
|
Tyhee |
CAD 0.16 |
-74.2% |
93.8% |
0.022 |
|
CAD 2.80 |
-26.9% |
268.4% |
0.122 |
|
|
Miranda |
CAD 0.24 |
-78.9% |
45.5% |
0.009 |
|
Mariana |
GBP 0.03 |
-75.0% |
0.0% |
0.002 |
|
Tribune Resources |
AUD 0.72 |
-65.6% |
0.0% |
0.025 |
|
Atna Resources |
CAD 0.45 |
-74.4% |
50.0% |
0.031 |
|
Condor Resources |
CAD 0.07 |
-96.3% |
62.5% |
0.001 |
|
Australian Solomons |
CAD 0.04 |
-96.3% |
0.0% |
0.002 |
|
Brazauro |
CAD 0.30 |
-66.7% |
200.0% |
0.021 |
|
Frontier Mining |
GBP 0.00 |
-98.2% |
40.0% |
0.001 |
|
NWM Mining |
CAD 0.07 |
-68.2% |
366.7% |
0.006 |
|
Geoinformatics |
CAD 0.01 |
-97.6% |
100.0% |
0.006 |
|
Hawthorne Gold |
CAD 0.23 |
-90.5% |
91.7% |
0.006 |
|
Inter-Citic |
CAD 0.46 |
-79.0% |
170.6% |
0.032 |
|
CAD 1.41 |
-41.3% |
31.8% |
0.051 |
|
|
Midway Gold |
CAD 0.36 |
-92.3% |
100.0% |
0.019 |
|
PMI Gold |
CAD 0.05 |
-86.4% |
350.0% |
0.003 |
|
Verena |
CAD 0.11 |
-74.4% |
162.5% |
0.009 |
|
Vior |
CAD 0.03 |
-85.0% |
50.0% |
0.002 |
|
Ascot Mining |
GBP 0.31 |
-41.9% |
0.0% |
0.008 |
|
Kalimantan Gold |
CAD 0.06 |
-72.7% |
300.0% |
0.004 |
|
Republic Gold |
AUD 0.03 |
-80.7% |
13.0% |
0.013 |
|
Central China Gold |
GBP 0.02 |
-75.7% |
70.0% |
0.005 |
|
BMA Gold |
AUD 0.01 |
-78.8% |
120.0% |
0.004 |
|
Aldridge Minerals |
CAD 2.17 |
-41.7% |
20.6% |
0.041 |
|
Tianshan Goldfields |
AUD 0.07 |
-87.5% |
8.3% |
0.012 |
|
Cambridge Mining |
GBP 0.01 |
-56.0% |
57.1% |
0.008 |
|
Guyana Goldfields |
CAD 1.71 |
-78.0% |
180.3% |
0.073 |
|
GBP 0.01 |
-81.9% |
26.7% |
0.028 |
|
|
Asia Now Resources |
CAD 0.07 |
-87.5% |
18.2% |
0.004 |
|
Azumah Resources |
AUD 0.05 |
-76.7% |
25.0% |
0.003 |
|
BCGold |
CAD 0.05 |
-90.9% |
100.0% |
0.001 |
|
Goldrea |
CAD 0.05 |
-86.6% |
12.5% |
0.002 |
|
Philex Gold |
CAD 0.25 |
-70.6% |
66.7% |
0.008 |
|
La Mancha Resources |
CAD 0.18 |
-70.0% |
350.0% |
0.021 |
|
A1 Minerals |
AUD 0.07 |
-79.7% |
13.3% |
0.005 |
|
Alkane Resources |
AUD 0.14 |
-72.8% |
40.0% |
0.024 |
|
Beaconsfield Gold |
AUD 0.13 |
-56.7% |
44.4% |
0.037 |
|
Catalpa Resources |
AUD 0.03 |
-71.3% |
42.1% |
0.010 |
|
North Queensland |
AUD 0.18 |
-68.2% |
29.6% |
0.018 |
|
Developer averages/total |
-75.1% |
75.7% |
7.138 |
|
|
Weighted averages |
|
-68.9% |
86.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall averages/total |
-69.2% |
85.7% |
196.136 |
|
|
Overall weighted averages |
-53.2% |
102.8% |
|
|
|
* 12-month |
|
|
|
|
|
Source: market data; tables compiled by Barry Sergeant |
|
|||
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