GOLD ANALYSIS

2009 gold price estimates - High $1345, Year End $1172, Average $992

This year's Mineweb gold price competition closed on Jan 31st with readers on average fairly bullish on the yellow metal's price prospects for 2009.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Monday , 02 Feb 2009

LONDON - 

Mineweb's readers have spoken - the gold price high for 2009 will be $1345, the low price will be $764, the year-end price will be $1172 and the average over the year will be $992 - or at least that is the result of averaging out all the entries in this year's Mineweb gold price competition. 

This shows that Mineweb readers in general are, in a vast majority, confident that gold will perform well this year and certainly the initial performance of the gold price suggests that this may well be the case - but whether it will perform as well as readers think is the big question. 

There certainly are gold price supreme optimists out there.  Reader JJ is predicting a $5000 price this year and another six readers are looking for a price of $2000 or more, while at the other end of the scale some fourteen readers are looking for gold to fall below $700 at some stage during the year.  

A year is a long time in terms of price forecasting as we have seen in 2008 with gold moving up strongly for three months before coming crashing down so many thanks to those who are prepared to stick their necks out and put their estimates in writing.  It is so easy to be very wrong. 

As we have mentioned in these columns beforehand, we like to compare Mineweb readers' forecasts with those of the panel of experts who make their predictions in the London Bullion Market' association's own annual forecasting competition.  This year the average of the forecasts in the LBMA competition for 2009 was High: $1074, Low: $721 and Average $881. 

For the current competition it was encouraging to receive around 50 percent more entries than last year and given the current interest in gold, and the growth in Mineweb readership over the past year, it would have been disappointing if we had not seen some growth in the number of forecasts received. 

A full tabulation of entries is shown below.  Our thanks to those of you who participated - and good luck in the competition itself. 

Name	High	Low	Year End	Average
A J Bielski	1285	785	1200	1025
Alan S	1675	877	1580	1250
Aleksandar Milovanovic	942	731	888	837
Alpine Finance	1125	825	968	965
Ameer Abdul Kader	1240	760	975	925
Andre Glauser	910	680	890	850
Andrew Nevin	1090	620	1010	830
angus1	998	859	987	929
Auminr	1158	825	1110	985
Bill Fowler	1243	740	1157	912
BlackHat	1350	750	1100	950
Bob Schafer	1387	821	1273	1089
Brian Medlock	1927	777	1631	1109
Brock Salier	967	694	720	763
Burke Okrainec	1208	833	1080	925
C. Kottmeier	889	705	720	740
CESAR	2400	840	2100	1500
Cgoon	1600	750	1190	1117
Clint O'Brien	1089	821	912	832
CPI Clifford	1330	752	1313	1001
Dale Nejmeldeen	1278	625	1214	959
De Wet	3000	850	2800	1750
Dillon $ Man	111	809	1012	978
Djamaluddin	1000	750	850	900
Down to earth	890	650	750	800
Dr. Thom	1695	833	1333	977
drkok	1000	800	900	950
Esrazor	1250	835	1175	975
Frank Zargar	1010	700	910	910
Fred Wright	1624	600	700	925
Freemarketman	1015	650	850	800
FUBAR	1648	675	1648	972
George 'Silverking' Bloom jr.	1393	822	1288	1111
Golden Garth	1990	830	1666	1313
Gordon Haight	2130	820	2015	990
Graham Smith	1129	781	978	901
Herbert	1150	850	1050	1000
Hocquard	1450	760	1200	950
Imran O'Brien	1184	760	1035	850
Jeff Evangelos	1576	810	1490	1139
Jim Tully	1650	822	1650	1350
JJ	5000	650	3000	800
John Ing	2000	780	1300	1300
John Richards	1178	747	786	849
John Travis	1092	828	1011	933
John V. Hickey	1423	767	1313	1147
Joseph Canada	1150	800	1150	1000
Joseph E Fasciani	1350	820	1150	1085
jschulmansr	1328	785	1177	1080
Juris Ore	995	675	825	845
Lawrence Williams	1125	810	1070	917
Mal	1250	750	1200	1055
Mapster	1958	801	1886	1250
Mark Morris	1600	805	1375	1200
Matt	1050	700	876	880
Matt Pajic	1225	825	1020	980
Max GOLDstein	1011	792	901	874
MedinahMan	1324	801	1125	1003
Mr Halhal	950	600	800	750
Nigel Davies	986	713	931	882
obewon86	1314	774	1090	1010
Pano Chrysomallos	1136	790	973	841
Patrick Mohr	990	808	950	940
Peter Hamilton	1450	825	1305	1098
Peter Salditt	1080	810	920	940
Phil Swinfen	986	735	860	868
Philip Houtekier	1210	800	1150	950
Phillip	965	760	940	875
Resa Furey	1040	845	845	870
Rich Greene	2300	809	2120	1277
Robert Wallace	1215	800	930	940
Roger Howe	1069	744	957	888
RoyB	893	647	632	761
Saied Mohammed	1450	800	1200	1150
Sam Spencer	1352	751	1153	981
Simon Gardner-Bond	1144	732	944	890
sosionet	1850	780	1530	1330
Stanley 1340	2124	847	1677	1324
Stefan Hayden	1072	660	964	852
Steven Willis	979	789	943	897
SUNARES	1465	800	1167	1040
T. Kelly	1250	650	1100	925
Taranya De Silva	1095	825	1045	990
Tim Melia	1255	795	1140	1035
Tony Cutler	1660	835	1850	1250
TorontoBrendan	1344	779	1268	1141
Vhembe	1154	800	1154	977
Yan Weidong	890	380	420	540
ypravx	1333	713	1167	925
Yukon Gold Digger	963	724	870	889
Averages	1345	764	1172	992

 

Note:  The prices on which the competition will be judged will be the high and low prices as recorded at one of the London Bullion Market Association's daily fixes and the year-end price will be that at the LBMA's final fixing of the year on the morning of December 31^st.  The Average price will be the LBMA's announced average for the year, which is usually made available in early January.