Gold high for 2010 of $1578 - the readers have spoken

Entrants to this year's Mineweb gold price competition look for gold price to slip further before attaining new highs.

LONDON - 

Mineweb's 2010 gold price competition has now closed and, as usual readers are overall bullish about gold's prospects in the year ahead.  However the consensus also sees a fall to well below current levels occurring before the price surges again to record highs.  It will be interesting to see if this scenario plays out over the year.

The average ‘low' price for gold seen by readers this year is a slightly depressing $996, suggesting that the $1,000 level may be breached on the downside - but perhaps only briefly.  Reading between the lines with one's own interpretation of reader expectations it looks like this low point is expected sooner rather than later in the year, and with the current surge in the dollar price levels may well be vulnerable in the short term.

This year we also asked for a mid year prediction looking for the LBMA closing price on Wednesday June 30^th.  Readers on average are looking for a mid-year price of $1,217 which bears out the sharp fall followed by a quick recovery scenario.

Obviously Mineweb readers are looking for even further rises in the second half of the year, with a year-end prediction of $1,433, ahead of which a gold price high point for the year of $1,578 is suggested by the figures and an average price over the year of $1,265.  The writer feels, perhaps these are a little too bullish - his own projections (sticking his neck out here) were High: $1,480, Low $1,059, Year-end $1,376, Average and June 30 prices of $1,210.

Compare these with the London Bullion Market Association projections of a panel of ‘experts', and split the difference and, based on previous years' experience we may get a pretty good final figure.  It obviously remains to be seen whether this assessment is any more accurate than any other!  For the record the LBMA experts picked an average high price of $1,394, a low of $983 and an average of $1,199.  The other categories in the Mineweb competition were not part of the LBMA's panel predictions.

Thus if we average out the LBMA and Mineweb reader predictions we end up with a 2010 gold price high of $1,486, a low of $989.50 and an average of $1,232.

A year is a long time in the pattern of the gold price.  Much obviously will depend on the strength of the global economy and of the not so mighty U.S. dollar, not to mention China where doubts are currently being expressed about growth continuing if the authorities clamp down on some nasty inflationary trends which are currently becoming apparent.

The full listing of the Mineweb reader entries is set out below:

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Disclaimer

MINEWEB is an interactive publication, with rolling deadlines through each day, commencing in the Sydney morning,  and concluding, 24 hours later,  in the Vancouver evening.  If you believe your side of an issue deserves inclusion, but has failed to meet one of our deadlines, you are invited to notify the Editor in Chief in Johannesburg, and we will include you in our editing and expanding on our stories. Email him at alechogg@gmail.com

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@wholesale nfl jersey Lost in Translation are we - LOL!! Tim Tebow can also like to play for Freestate. They need the ticket sales in Bloem. by Hooker on January 27 2010, 02:58 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Where are the guru's, hey? So where's Issy Bacher's punt? How about is Alec, let's check out the prevailing guru's worth against us ordinary okes. by Arnold on January 27 2010, 06:26 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

Gold PRice Guesses I submitted a guess the day that the contest started, but do not see my name and guesses in your list. What happened? by Bob Schafer on January 27 2010, 08:51 Find this comment inappropriate? Report it

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